Weekly Market Update
Stocks: Confidence Is Holding Up
Large-cap growth and technology led the way again. The rally has been narrow in terms of leadership, but it hasn't weakened — and that distinction matters. Portfolios with exposure to quality growth and AI-related themes continue to benefit, while diversification across styles remains important for managing valuation risk if rates stay elevated longer than expected.
Bonds: Income, Not Protection
Treasury yields stayed elevated, with the 10-year hovering in the mid-4.5% range. Markets are now pricing in a meaningful probability of another Fed rate hike later this year, and the "higher-for-longer" narrative has firmly taken hold.
Inflation & the Fed: The Conversation Has Shifted
April's PCE inflation report showed headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, with core inflation ticking higher as well. Fed officials continue to push back on rate-cut expectations, and the market conversation has shifted from when cuts begin to whether another hike is on the table. The silver lining: much of this is now priced in, which takes some of the sting out of hawkish headlines.
Energy: A Bit of Relief
Oil prices pulled back as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed modest signs of easing. Energy remains volatile and headline-driven, but the retreat helped take some pressure off the inflation picture at the margin.
The Bottom Line
The current environment still supports selective risk-taking — but discipline matters. Income is attractive, equity momentum is intact, and inflation risks argue for balance over concentration. If you're wondering whether adjustments make sense given where rates and markets stand today, that's exactly the kind of conversation we have with our clients every day.
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